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Friday, April 28, 2006
THE HARD NUMBERS 

Over at The Hot Button,, David Poland, while discussing Roger Ebert's Overlooked Film Festival, throws out some industry analysis that feels pretty dead on and which is the kind of thinking that a lot of first-time filmmakers I encounter don't really understand when they talk about the value of their film:

The new small distributors are trying a new model. 12-16 movies a year. Nothing too big. $15 million is the top. Nothing too small. A $1 million or $2 million pick-up is possible... but only if the film looks like $8 million or more. Cover most of the money with foreign pre-sales. And hope for a few miracle winners a year.

Why not embrace the smaller, quality films? Because the return tends to match the size of the film. Lots of people would be thrilled to make $750,000 profit on a film that cost $1 million. But not a lot of companies would....

The future will open up the avenues of distribution. However, the difficulty of being heard above the constant hum of noise created by the big boys, both major and Dependent, is only going to get worse. The same way that AtomFilms and iFilms were able to get people who spent $60,000 - $120,000 on short films to accept deals for $2000 for all rights is the same thing that will happen, on some level with features. Perhaps the balance will be less onerous for the filmmaker. But the reality is that possible gross revenues from, say, 50,000 people wanting to see your film via digital download to the TV or home-burnt DVD is probably less than $400,000. Split that with the delivery carrier and it's no more than $320,000. Factor in distribution expenses, including promotion, and it's down to, say, $250,000.

How many feature films that cost $250,000 are going to find an audience of 50,000 people who will pay for the privilege? How many $8 million projects that hope to be theatrically released will end up having their budgets cut to $2 million in hopes that they will either get lucky - and on the odds based on the number of films made alone, luck is more than a minor issue - and how many $1 million-plus losses will be sustained before that money dries up?

The painful bottom line is that there is not a lot of control on the demand side, only on the supply side. You can control how much you spend on making and promoting a film. But you can't force people to pay money to see your movie, no matter what the format of delivery, without either spending more, having a great hook, or getting awfully lucky... or all of the above.


# posted by Scott Macaulay @ 4/28/2006 04:00:00 PM
Comments (8)

 
This is the scary moment we're in for smaller films... How will it be possible to make even those modest amounts back on a single project, let alone sustain a career that also includes a livable income?
# posted by Blogger Ray Pride @ 4/28/2006 4:44 PM  

 
Reading this is a bit nauseating. I think many first-time filmmakers may understand this, but don't want to think about it. After all, the alternative is not making films at all since first-time filmmakers don't have access to $2 million. When you don't have that kind of money and don't have any contacts in the industry, the only alternatives are making a micro-budget film or not making any film. When you're outside looking in, no one will even read your screenplay let alone give you $2 million to shoot it. So you have to put on blinders and think about those rare successes like "Slacker," or more recently, "Primer." Or you hope your film gets enough recognition that someone will fund the next project.
# posted by Blogger Josh Boelter @ 4/28/2006 7:08 PM  

 
Yeah, it's not bad, or, well, it's only bad if you make a movie that no one wants to see.

Here's why I say this: if you make a movie on a 1 million + budget, or even a budget of $100,000 - $500,000 then you are playing in a rare arena for a first time or second time indie filmmaker. Good luck with distribution & getting that money back if you are expecting indiewood to do it for you.

However, like me, the vast majority of indie filmmakers in the US who make films these days make it on digital & make it for under $100,000 (The Puffy Chair is an example). Let's say you spend $10,000 cash on your feature (not counting deffered pay), then all you have to do once the film is done is to sell 1,000 DVDs to make a small profit or recoup the $s invested in the production.

I guess the key is to make a movie at least 1,000 people in this world want to see. Better if it is 1,000 people in the US (otherwise you may have to make a PAL DVD).

Depending on indiewood to help you make your money back from a feature is not a good idea at this point, and it probably never was - for every Stranger Than Paradise or Slacker or Clerks there were several hundred good movies that were passed on, I am sure.

Indie filmmakers should focus on making an excellent movie & selling it directly to their target audience (through theatrical self-diststribution, DVD sales or through VOD through a company such as Green Cine). Indiewood & Hollywood companies needs a huge profit margin in order to survive. Individual indie filmmakers or small production companies do not.

Self-financing (more or less), DIY production & self-distribution is the way to go if you want to be 99% sure that your film will get made & will be available to the public.

And of course you should spend as little cash as possible while making sure the quality of what gets shown on the screen is as high as possible.

Easy, no doubt :)

And finally, naysayers who are worried about the $ situation never stopped artists from making art. Indie film will continue regardless of what indiewood does.

- Sujewa
(btw, support a DIY filmmaker, check out my movie Date Number One in DC & Seattle in May : http://www.wilddiner.com/)
# posted by Blogger The Sujewa @ 4/28/2006 8:02 PM  

 
Hey Sujewa, I always admire your enthusiasm. If your film comes to Detroit or Ann Arbor, I'll be there.

Obviously we can't count on the established industry to make our money back. Money's not the point; there are much easier ways to make money. Even a wildly successful movie like Swingers was made as a resume film. Hopefully you invest what you can afford to lose, make your money back, and get to do it again.
# posted by Blogger Josh Boelter @ 4/29/2006 8:15 AM  

 
Thanks for the support Josh. Yeah, the film will play in Detroit & Ann Arbor, not sure when yet, will know soon.

But you'll probably get to see the film on DVD before it gets there, if u want.

A filmmaker can have a career w/out Hollywood & Indiewood. Making resume films is fine, but building a self-sufficient, profitable DIY/indie filmmaking & distro biz is just as good or better. I definitely prefer the DIY option.

Later on. Looking forward to your new flick.

- Sujewa
# posted by Blogger The Sujewa @ 4/29/2006 2:05 PM  

 
I've wanted to reply to this for a while, but all of your posts have brought up so many thoughts that finally I realized that I should probably write an article about the issues involving investor recoupment, profitability and making a living as a filmmaker.

Suffice to say for now that I don't think there's one answer to the questions you all pose. Sujewa's approach is the best... for him. Others can't make films on that level -- they need more expensive tools and collaborators to realize their visions, or, they lack the time and energy to devote themselves to distribution activities. But if you can make a business model out of low-cost production that keeps you aesthetically satisfied, it is a good way to go. If you can't, you have to think about making something great with the resources you have available to you and trying to use that to leverage yourself up to greater opportunities the next time around.
# posted by Blogger Scott Macaulay @ 5/02/2006 10:35 PM  

 
I look forward to the article, Scott. I, for one, have a day job as a web designer and will likely have a day job for a while. I like Sujewa’s approach and enthusiasm and I’ll likely follow a similar approach for my first film since I’ve been unable to secure funding and will be funding it myself. That’s okay, I wrote a screenplay that I can (hopefully) make with the resources I have. I’d like to have additional resources and will have to cut some things from the script that I quite like. (A low budget comedy about a graffiti artist does present some compromises with regards to locations when you don’t have much money.) Personally, I’d rather not go through self-distribution. I’d rather get onto making the next project. But I know the odds of getting a distributor at the festivals are small, so I’m preparing to do everything myself—if I have to.

And although I’ve written this screenplay around resources I have available, I have other scripts and ideas in various states of completion that would need a lot more resources than I can fit on my Mastercard. So my hope is that my first project will garner enough recognition that I’ll be able to get funding for future projects. That’s basically my goal with the first film; I want to make my money back and get a chance to bring some of my other stories to the screen.
# posted by Blogger Josh Boelter @ 5/03/2006 10:25 AM  

 
I have been writing and producing stage plays in community theater. I want very much now to go to the next level of DVD. I work 2-3 jobs to pay for production of my plays in local venues. I have been searching funding avenues only to reach road-blocks. What is the least expensive a DVD can be produced? How do I locate agents to key actors (even for theater)? Please help.
# posted by Blogger Denise @ 8/28/2007 1:29 AM  


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